Heat deaths in Europe are projected to triple by the end of the century, with southern European countries such as Italy, Greece, and Spain bearing the brunt of this increase, according to a recent study published in the Lancet Public Health. While cold currently kills more people than heat in Europe, the study found that as the climate warms, the death toll from heat-related causes will rise disproportionately, particularly among older and more vulnerable populations.
The researchers warned that if global heating reaches 3C or 4C, the rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any decrease in cold-related deaths. This poses unprecedented challenges to public health systems, especially during heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change.
The study estimated that if temperatures rise to 3C above preindustrial levels, heat-related deaths in Europe could reach 129,000 per year, compared to the current 44,000 deaths. Even if world leaders meet their global warming target of 1.5C, the total death toll from cold and heat in Europe is projected to increase from 407,000 to 450,000 by 2100.
The research contradicts arguments from climate deniers who claim that global heating is beneficial because it reduces cold-related deaths. In reality, the study found that the increase in heat-related deaths will outweigh any decrease in cold-related deaths, even in Europe, the coolest inhabited continent.
The study also highlighted the indirect impacts of extreme heat, such as crop failure, wildfires, infrastructure damage, and economic losses, which can have far-reaching consequences on society. These impacts underscore the urgent need to address climate change and mitigate its effects on public health.
The researchers analyzed data from 854 cities across Europe to estimate the impact of temperature on mortality rates. They found that heat-related deaths would increase in all parts of Europe, with southern European countries experiencing the highest burden. The study projected a 13.5% rise in temperature-related deaths if the planet warms by 3C, resulting in 55,000 additional deaths, mostly among those over 85 years old.
While the study provided valuable insights, experts cautioned that predicting temperature-related deaths is complex and uncertain. Factors such as improved healthcare and changes to infrastructure can influence mortality rates, and adaptation measures are crucial to reducing the impact of rising temperatures on public health.
In conclusion, the researchers emphasized the importance of addressing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the worst-case scenario of rising heat-related deaths. They called for policies to reduce the death toll, such as investing in healthcare, creating action plans, and improving building insulation. Efforts to adapt should focus on regions with high unemployment, poverty, and aging populations, as these areas are less equipped to cope with the impacts of climate change. By taking proactive measures to address the root causes of climate change, we can protect vulnerable populations and build resilience against the growing threat of heat-related deaths in Europe.
