The 45th Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian military has been making significant advances in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, firmly controlling 200 square miles of territory and contesting an additional 350 square miles. This progress, however, has come at a cost, with the Ukrainian invasion corps experiencing losses in armored vehicles and potentially troops. In contrast, Russian forces have surrendered in large numbers to the attacking Ukrainians, resulting in an unusual ratio of equipment losses.
Throughout the wider war on Ukraine, the Russian military has consistently lost more vehicles than the Ukrainians on a daily basis. However, the ongoing campaign in Kursk has seen a shift in this trend, with Ukrainian forces facing losses of four tanks and 41 infantry vehicles in just nine days. This increased attrition of valuable equipment, particularly infantry vehicles, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the Ukrainian offensive.
Despite the high losses, Ukrainian planners may view the strategic gains of the Kursk campaign as justifying the material cost. Analysts suggest that Ukraine’s objective in capturing Kursk Oblast is to gain leverage for potential negotiations with Russia. By holding a significant portion of Russian territory, Ukraine aims to have valuable assets to trade for concessions in future talks.
As the pace of the Ukrainian advance slows and the loss ratio potentially flips, the focus may shift to holding ground and forcing Russia to suffer heavy losses in retaking it. This scenario could mirror the entrenched fighting along the front line in Ukraine, where Russian troops struggle to defeat entrenched Ukrainians.
For now, the Ukrainians remain vulnerable as they continue their offensive in Kursk. The open terrain and movement make them susceptible to further losses, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making and careful planning moving forward. The outcome of the Kursk campaign will ultimately depend on the balance between military gains and losses, as well as the broader geopolitical implications for Ukraine and Russia.
